INDIA – Has the economy turned around.

A. INTRODUCTION:

COVID-19 affected the entire world making no difference between the rich and the poor, between the strong and poor nations. Wealth could not avoid the catastrophe and could not also guarantee a good life.

Well laid rules of economics were tested. The well-established health care systems of advanced nations were also severely tested and found wanting. In all, the world order was severely tested to the core. No country howsoever mighty and wealthy was spared from its debilitating effects.

B. IMPACT ON ECONOMY:

The onset and spread of the disease were so severe that many of the countries went into forced lockdown of the economic activity, in order to prevent the spread of the fatal disease. The forced lockdown affected industries across board and resulted in severe shortfall of revenue, both to the industry and the Governments. Employments were lost, salaries were cut, business was lost along with mounting interest on borrowed capital and the absence of a timeline for the resumption of economic activity.

It made for a very alarming and bleak future. The economic activity throughout the world was severely affected. In addition to this, Governments had to prepare their economy on a scale of war to provide healthcare which cost them a bomb.

India, being a developing country, was also severely tested. Industrial production came to a standstill and our healthcare system was also stretched but due to the pragmatic policies of the Central Government headed by Honourable Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the catastrophic effects of the rampaging pandemic was arrested to a great deal. We should not lose sight of the fact of our huge population and not so developed healthcare system prevalent. Our economy was also severely affected.

C. IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY:

As was the norm throughout the world, Indian Economy also bore the brunt of the pandemic. There was a very drastic shortfall in industrial production, retail trade, loss of employment, realty sector saw a downward spiral. Tourism sector was also severely affected. There was loss of employment, reduction in salary, thereby severely affecting their loan repayments, which had a bearing on banking industry also. This is borne out by the following statistics

• GST Collections

Month	2020 (cr)	2019 (cr)
April	32,294	1,13,865
May	62,009	1,00,289
June	90,917	99,939
July	87,422	1,02083
August	86,449	98,202
September	95,480	91,916

• Advance Income Tax

Quarter	2020 (cr)	2019 (cr)
Corporate
September	1,21,153	1,66,648
June	8,466	39,296
Sub Total	1,29,619	2,05,944
Others
September	26,190	46,241
June	3,248	9,512
Sub Total	29,438	55,753
Total Advance Tax Collected
September	1,47,343	2,12,889
June	11,713	48,808
Grand Total	1,59,056	2,61,697

• Employment Generation:

Unemployment Rate	2020 (%)	2019 (%)
August	8.35	8.19
July	7.40	7.34
June	10.18	7.87
May	21.73	7.03
April	23.52	7.32

•  Index of Industrial Production:

Month	YOY (%)
April	-57.3
May	-33.4
June	-16.5
July	-10.8
August	-7.4

source: mospi.in

The effect of the pandemic was visible in all the parameters shown above.

D.MEASURES ADOPTED BY GOVERNMENT TO STIMULATE ECONOMY.

The Central Government was seized of the damage caused by the pandemic and brought forth various stimulus measures to kickstart the economy and to help all sections of population. Various measures brough by the government were as under:

Overall Stimulus Provided under Aatmanirbhar Bharat Package

	Particulars	(Rs. Cr)
1	Part 1	5,94,550
2	Part 2	3,10,000
3	Part 3	1,50,000
4	Part 4 and 5	48,100
	Sub Total	11,02,650
5	Earlier Measures incl PMGKP	1,92,800
6	RBI Measures (Actual)	8,01,603
	Sub Total	9,94,403
	Grand Total	20,97,053

 

SN	Particulars	(Rs.Cr)
1	Emergency W/C Facility for Businesses, Incl MSMEs	3,00,000
2	Subordinate Debt for Stressed MSMEs	20,000
3	Fund of Funds for MSMEs	50,000
4	EPF support for Busines & Workers	2,800
5	Reduction in EPF rates	6,750
6	Special Liquidity Scheme for NBFC/HFC/MFIs	30,000
7	Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme 2.0 for Liabilities of NBFCs/MFIs	45,000
8	Liquidity injection for DISCOMs	90,000
9	Reduction in TDS/TCS rates	50,000
	Total	5,94,550

Details of support extended in Part-2.

SN		(Rs. Cr)
1	Free Food Grain Supply to Migrant workers for 2 months	3,500
2	Interest Subvention for MUDRA Shishu Loans	1,500
3	Special Credit Facility to Street Vendors	5,000
4	Housing CLSS-MIG	70,000
5	Additional Emergency Working Capital through NABARD	30,000
6	Additional Credit through KCC	2,00,000
	Total	3,10,000

  Details of support extended in Part-3

SN	Particulars	(Rs. Cr)
1	Food Micro Enterprises	10,000
2	Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana	20,000
3	TOP to TOTAL: Operation Greens	500
4	Agri Infrastructure Fund	1,00,000
5	Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund	15,000
6	Promotion of Herbal Cultivation	4,000
7	Beekeeping Initiative	500
	Total	1,50,000

  Details of support extended in Part-4 & Part-5

SN	Particulars	(Rs. Cr)
1	Viability Gap Funding	8,100
2	Additional MGNEREGS allocation	40,000
	Total	48,100

  Support extended in 2^nd Stimulus package.

The stimulus provided by the Central Government helped a great deal in kickstarting an economy which was on a downward spiral because of the effects of Corona Pandemic. It covered all sections of the society.

D. FUTURE TRENDS:

Indian economy is an economy blessed by God in various ways. Since India is a spiritual country, many festivals mark its calendar throughout the year. Starting from Sankranti, Ayudha pooja, Navaratri, Holi, Deepavali, Christmas, Eid, Bakrid and the like dot its calendar. These festivals push demand for consumer goods ranging from clothes, jewellery, gems, realty, cars, and consumer goods. 

During to the lockdown measures being gradually withdrawn, the last quarter of the year saw record sales generated from all these sectors put together, which contributed in a big way in the upsurge of Income Tax and GST collections. The sales were in a big way, driven by the pent-up demand further lubricated by festivals. This ensures all year-round demand for consumer goods which drives our economy compared to other economies.

Even the software industry and defence industry posted good gains. Since the lockdown was progressively withdrawn the movement of men and material started which contributed in a big way in collection of VAT on petroleum products which helped in Government funding many of its people friendly schemes. Auto, cement and steel sector drove the growth.

The growth was also influenced by the major infra push given by the Central Government.

Some of the key parameters are given below:

• The industrial sector as per Index of Industrial Production (IIP) registered a growth of 0.6 per cent in 2019-20 (April-November) as compared to 5.0 % during 2018-19 (April-November).

• Fertilizer sector achieved a growth of 4.0 % during 2019-20 (April-November) as compared to (-) 1.3 per cent during 2018-19 (April-November).

• Steel sector achieved a growth of 5.2 % during 2019-20 (April-November) as compared to 3.6 % during 2018-19 (April-November).

• Total telephone connections in India touched 119.43 crore as on September 30, 2019.

• The installed capacity of power generation has increased to 3,64,960 MW as on October 31, 2019 from 3,56,100 MW as on March 31, 2019.

• Report of the Task Force on National Infrastructure Pipeline released on 31.12.2019 has projected total infrastructure investment of Rs. 102 lakh crores during the period FY 2020 to 2025 in India.

• Services Sector

1. Increasing significance of services sector in the Indian economy:
2. About 55 % of the total size of the economy and GVA growth.
3. Two-thirds of total FDI inflows into India.
4. About 38 per cent of total exports.
5. More than 50 % of GVA in 15 out of the 33 states and UTs.
6. Gross Value-Added growth of the services sector moderated in 2019-20 as suggested by various high-frequency indicators and sectoral data such as air passenger traffic, port and shipping freight traffic, bank credit etc.

• On the bright side, FDI into services sector has witnessed a recovery in early 2019-20 (Source Press Information Bureau handout).

• The turnaround is also backed by the following figures of taxes collected:

• GST Collections:     

Month	2020 (in Cr)	2019 (in Cr)
December	1,15,174	1,03,184
November	1,04,963	1,03,492
October	1,05,155	95,380

• Advance Income Tax :

December (Q3)	2020	2019
Corporate	1,09,506	73,126
Others	31,054	32,910
Total	1,40,560	1,06,036

• Employment Generation:

Unemployment rate	2020	2019
November	6.51	7.23
October	6.98	8.10
September	6.67	7.14

• Index of Industrial Production:

Month	2020
September	0.2
October	3.6

            source: mospi.in

• UPI payment disbursal from Banks

Month	2020 (in Crs)	2019 (in Crs)
December	22,58,304.0	19,42,230.7
November	22,18,252.5	17,34,651.2
October	22,35,389.0	18,60,786.3

            Source: npci.org.in

• YOY Growth (%)

YOY Growth (%)	Apr-20	Jun-20	Sep-20	Dec-20
Railway-Tonnage Movement	-35.2	-7.8	15.3	8.6
Power Demand	-24	-10.5	4.6	5
Avg. E Waybill	-83.6	-12.7	9.6	13.2
Manufacturing PMI	27.4	47.2	56.8	56.2
Service PMI	5.4	33.7	49.8	53.7
Gross GST Collections	-71.6	-9	3.9	11.6
Unemployment	25	11.7	8.5	8.8
PV Registration	-90.2	-26.3	31.9	34.6
2W Registration	-75.9	-37.8	-11	14.5
Tractor Registration	-84.2	6.9	88.1	42.8

            Source: HDFC MF Yearbook

• Start-ups Registrations:

	2020 (till Nov)	2019
Registered during the Year	40,759	24,927

• Car Sales:

Period	2020	2019
December	2,76,412	2,34,805
November	2,91,001	2,79,365
October	3,33,660	2,84,039

            source: autopandiz.com

• Two-Wheeler Sales:

Period	2020	2019
December	10,99,651	10,50,038
November	16,00,685	14,10,939
October	20,53,814	17,57,264

source: autopandiz.com

• India’s manufacturing PMI stood at 58.9 in October 2020 from 56.8 in September. Also, companies have started to spend more on hiring and anticipate good growth in prospects. As per the latest survey, capacity utilisation in India’s manufacturing sector stood at 68.9% in Q3FY20.

Manufacturing	YOY (%)
Basic Metals	10.8
Intermediate Goods	8.8
Food Products	2.7
Tobacco Products	2.9

• The electronic goods industry is one of the fastest growing industries and is expected to be worth Rs. 27.96 lakh crore (US$ 400 billion) by 2020. The Government is working on an export-oriented policy for electronic products. The idea behind this policy is to promote greater export of electronics and drive larger investments by setting up port-based electronic manufacturing clusters.

• The Government of India has been supportive towards industry’s growth. It has set up Electronic Hardware Technology Parks (EHTPs), Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and has brought about a favourable climate for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The Government has also increased liberalisation and has relaxed tariffs to promote growth in the sector. In addition, it has given the nod to Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme (MSIPS) under which the Central Government will be offering up to Rs. 11,881 crores (US$ 1.7 billion) in benefits to the electronics sector in the next five years. Under the scheme, a subsidy for investment in capital expenditure is provided to the extent of 20% of investment in SEZs and 25% of investment in non-SEZs.

• By reducing the rate of Income Tax and the rates of TDS more money was put in the hands of people in order to help them spend more and to use it to their necessities.

      E. Summary.

A study of the various parameters stated above leads us to the conclusion that the  Indian economy is on a resurgent mode and happy times are ahead. The bad times of the pandemic may be behind us as the economy surges ahead in the immediate future. All it needs is a bit of help by a friendly budget and pragmatic reduction of rates in GST. Both the retail trade and the heavy industries segment are set for a good time led by spending on high value items in defence industry.

                                       STAY       SAFE        BUT       WORK          HARD.